US Existing Home Sales Hit a 16-Year Low in October — What It Really Means for Charleston Real Estate

by Bryan Crabtree

The numbers coming out of the National Association of Realtors are hard to ignore. US existing home sales dropped to their lowest annual rate in more than 16 years in October, a milestone that signals something significant is happening across the American housing market. But national headlines rarely tell the full story for a market as distinctive as Charleston, South Carolina. Here is a ground-level look at what is driving the slump, how the Lowcountry is responding, and what buyers and sellers in Charleston and Mount Pleasant should actually do about it.

What the 16-Year Low in US Existing Home Sales Actually Means

When NAR reports a 16-year low in existing home sales, it means the pace of homes changing hands has fallen back to levels not seen since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis era. The October annualized sales rate hovered just above 3.8 million units nationally, a sharp contrast to the 6-million-plus pace recorded during the pandemic-era boom years.

Two forces are primarily responsible. First, mortgage rates remain elevated, hovering in the mid-to-upper 6 percent range through much of 2026, which has priced a meaningful segment of buyers out of the market or pushed them to the sidelines. Second, the so-called “rate lock-in effect” continues to suppress inventory: homeowners who secured 2.5 to 3.5 percent rates during 2020 and 2021 have little financial incentive to sell and take on a new loan at nearly double the cost. The result is a market with thin inventory and thin buyer pools colliding in a way that freezes transaction volume without necessarily collapsing prices.

How Charleston’s Real Estate Market Is Responding

Charleston’s local numbers tell a more nuanced story than the national headline suggests. Sales volume in the Charleston MSA has declined, but the drop has been less severe than in many comparable Sun Belt markets. Median sale prices in Charleston proper have remained above $420,000, and Mount Pleasant continues to command premiums well above that threshold, with many neighborhoods seeing median prices in the $550,000 to $650,000 range.

Days on market have stretched noticeably. Homes that might have sold in under two weeks during 2021 and 2022 are now sitting for 45 to 65 days on average before going under contract. Inventory has ticked upward, giving buyers more options than they have had in years, but the overall supply still falls short of what a fully balanced market would require. For sellers, this means the era of automatic offers above list price is over. For buyers, it means negotiating room has returned.

Charleston’s Affordability Problem Is Part of the Story

Charleston’s median home price sitting above $420,000 creates a real tension for first-time buyers and working families. Local wage growth has not kept pace with price appreciation over the past four years, and the affordability gap has widened considerably. Compared to regional peers like Greenville, SC, or even parts of the Charlotte metro, Charleston’s price-to-income ratio puts it in a more challenging category for entry-level buyers.

This affordability pressure is one reason buyer demand has softened. It is not simply that buyers are hesitant; many are genuinely priced out at current rates and price points. That dynamic affects the lower end of the Charleston market more acutely than the luxury or relocation-driven segment.

What Salary Do You Need to Buy a Home in Charleston Right Now?

This is one of the most common questions buyers are asking, and the math is worth spelling out clearly. At a $420,000 purchase price with 10 percent down and a 6.75 percent mortgage rate, a buyer is looking at a principal and interest payment of roughly $2,450 per month. Add property taxes, homeowner’s insurance, and potentially HOA fees, and total housing costs can easily reach $3,000 to $3,200 per month.

Using a standard 28 percent front-end debt-to-income guideline, a buyer needs a gross monthly income of approximately $10,700 to $11,400 to qualify comfortably. That translates to a household income in the range of $128,000 to $137,000 annually. For a $550,000 home in Mount Pleasant, that figure climbs to roughly $155,000 to $170,000 in household income. These numbers underscore why the buyer pool has thinned: a significant portion of Charleston’s workforce simply cannot reach that threshold without dual incomes or substantial down payment assistance.

South Carolina Foreclosure Activity: Low but Rising

South Carolina has climbed in national foreclosure rankings in recent months, a trend worth monitoring even if the absolute numbers remain manageable. The state’s foreclosure rate is rising from a historically low base, and certain zip codes in the broader Charleston region are beginning to show early stress signals, particularly in areas with higher concentrations of FHA loans originated during the 2020 to 2022 period.

FHA borrowers are disproportionately vulnerable right now. These buyers entered the market with minimal down payments, and those who purchased at peak prices in 2021 and 2022 have limited equity cushion if financial hardship strikes. For the Charleston market, this matters most at the entry-level price point, where distressed listings could gradually add inventory in zip codes like North Charleston and parts of Summerville. That is not necessarily bad news for buyers seeking value, but sellers in those areas should price with awareness of that emerging competition.

Which Charleston Neighborhoods Are Holding Value and Which Are Softening

Not all Charleston neighborhoods are experiencing the slowdown equally. Here is a practical breakdown:

Mount Pleasant (especially north of IOP Connector): Strong demand from relocating professionals and retirees continues to support prices. Days on market are longer, but price reductions are modest.
Daniel Island: Holding well due to limited resale inventory and sustained interest from corporate relocations. Premium pricing remains largely intact.
West Ashley: Showing more softening than other submarkets. Buyers have more negotiating leverage here, and price reductions are more common.
James Island: Mixed picture. Well-maintained homes priced under $500,000 are still moving at a reasonable pace; overpriced listings are sitting.
North Charleston: The most price-sensitive submarket. Entry-level inventory is rising, and early foreclosure pressure is most visible here. Buyers willing to do homework can find relative value.
Downtown Charleston (Peninsula): Luxury and historic properties remain resilient, supported by out-of-state buyers and investors. Volume is low but prices are stable.

Why Remote Workers and Retirees Are Still Choosing Charleston Despite the Slump

One reason Charleston is weathering the national slump better than many markets is the sustained influx of remote workers and retirees who are not rate-sensitive in the same way as traditional move-up buyers. A retiree selling a home in the Northeast or Midwest and relocating to Charleston with equity cash in hand is largely insulated from the mortgage rate environment. Similarly, remote workers relocating from high-cost metros like New York, Boston, or San Francisco often find Charleston’s prices reasonable by comparison, even at current levels.

This relocation demand acts as a genuine buffer. It does not eliminate the slowdown, but it prevents the kind of demand collapse that markets without this demographic tailwind are experiencing. Military demand from Joint Base Charleston adds another stable layer to the buyer pool that is largely unaffected by rate cycles.

Why Charleston Is Different From Other Struggling Markets

Florida markets, particularly in the Tampa and Jacksonville corridors, are facing a more acute combination of rising insurance costs, elevated foreclosure activity, and investor selloffs. Charleston does not share the same insurance crisis, and its investor concentration is lower than many Florida markets, which means forced selling pressure is more contained.

Population growth in the Charleston MSA continues to outpace the national average, which provides a structural floor under demand. That does not mean prices cannot soften further, but it does mean the conditions for a dramatic price collapse are not present in the way they might be elsewhere.

How to Price Your Charleston Home When Buyer Traffic Is Down

Sellers who price strategically in this environment are still closing deals. Those who price based on 2022 comparable sales are sitting on the market and eventually reducing anyway, often netting less than if they had priced correctly from day one. Here is a practical framework:

Pull the most recent 90 days of comparable sales, not 180 days. The market has shifted, and older comps are misleading.
Price at or slightly below the most relevant recent comparable. In a slower-velocity market, being the best value on the street generates more showings and stronger offers than being the highest-priced option.
Budget for seller concessions. Offering to contribute toward buyer closing costs or a rate buydown has become an effective tool for reaching buyers who are payment-sensitive.
Invest in presentation. Professional photography, pre-listing inspections, and clean staging matter more when buyers have more choices and are moving more deliberately.
Set realistic timeline expectations. A 45 to 60-day marketing period before contract is not a failure in the current environment; it is normal.

Negotiating Your Charleston Home Purchase in a Slower Market

Buyers in the Lowcountry have negotiating leverage they have not had since before the pandemic, and understanding how to use it effectively is important. In the current Charleston market, buyers should consider:

Requesting seller-paid closing costs or a rate buydown, particularly on homes that have been sitting for more than 30 days.
Including inspection contingencies without apology. Waiving inspections was common in 2021; it is not necessary or advisable in 2026.
Asking for price reductions based on inspection findings. Sellers are more willing to negotiate repairs or credits than they have been in years.
Being patient with counteroffers. The urgency that defined the pandemic market is largely gone. Buyers who take time to make informed offers are not at a disadvantage.
Focusing on homes with longer days on market. A listing that has been active for 45-plus days in Charleston is often a motivated seller waiting for the right offer.

Frequently Asked Questions About Charleston Real Estate and the National Slump

Should I sell my Charleston home now or wait until the market improves?

For most sellers, waiting for a dramatically better market is a speculative strategy that carries real costs: carrying costs, life decisions delayed, and no guarantee that rates or buyer demand will improve significantly in the near term. Sellers with well-located, well-maintained homes priced correctly are still closing transactions in Charleston. The better question is not when to sell, but how to position the home correctly for the current buyer pool.

Will home prices drop in Charleston, SC?

A modest softening in certain submarkets and price ranges is already underway. A dramatic price collapse is not supported by the data given Charleston’s population growth, limited distressed inventory, and sustained relocation demand. Buyers hoping for a 20 percent price drop are likely to be waiting a long time. Incremental softening of 5 to 8 percent in specific neighborhoods is more realistic.

Is the US housing market in a slump, and how does Charleston compare?

Yes, the national market is in a transaction-volume slump driven by elevated rates and the rate lock-in effect. Charleston is not immune, but it is outperforming many comparable markets thanks to its demographic demand drivers and relatively contained foreclosure activity.

What is the hardest month to sell a house in South Carolina?

Historically, January and February see the lowest buyer activity in South Carolina, making them the most challenging months to sell. Listing in late winter ahead of the spring buying season tends to produce better results than listing in mid-winter when buyer traffic is at its seasonal low.

Why is it a bad time to buy a house right now, and does that apply to Charleston?

The “bad time to buy” narrative is largely driven by national affordability concerns tied to elevated rates. In Charleston specifically, buyers who can qualify at current rates and plan to hold their home for five or more years are in a reasonable position. The negotiating leverage available right now is a meaningful offset to the higher rate environment, and future refinancing opportunities exist if rates decline.

Navigating this market well, whether buying or selling in Charleston or Mount Pleasant, comes down to working with someone who understands the neighborhood-level nuances that national data cannot capture. Bryan Crabtree Real Estate specializes in exactly that kind of local expertise, from accurate home valuations to pricing strategy and neighborhood-specific guidance throughout the Lowcountry.